There’s a diary on the front page right now about how Scott Walker is not doing well in New Hampshire. Speaking as a recently-ex-New-Hampster, I think this illustrates the value of having a dedicated set of people do early vetting of candidates.

Let me explain.

People have often commented that “New Hampshire politics is retail,” in that it’s different behavior from most places. The politically interested in NH want to see their candidates up close, kick their tires and try them on for size. In 2000 and 2004 I must have met six or eight candidates — I mean “met” as in was in the same living room as they were, asked them a question, shook their hand. Chris Dodd was saying all the right things about how Bush/Cheney were breaking laws but when I asked him one-on-one if that would lead to prosecution, he demurred; I left. (Before that I had spent a great deal of time talking with his young wife.) John Edwards I didn’t bother to ask a question of, though we were in the same living room; he came across as too slick (was it the hair?) and I didn’t trust him.

In 2008 the crowds were bigger. I shook Obama’s hand and heard him talk but didn’t get to talk with him; the event was on a large empty field and probably 300-400 people were there. John Kerry’s event the night before the primary was enough to convince me he wasn’t a milquetoast, as much as he comes off as one sometimes. But it was not as rewarding a political season because of the lack of close contact; friends of mine and I agreed that it was much more difficult to get a good feel for the candidates when they were so remote.

But these smaller venues, these crowds who ask questions, the question themselves being spontaneous and sometimes disturbing… these are what bring out the candidates’ real personalities (the candidate’s real personalities, maybe sometimes? 🙂 ). You can get more of a feel for each candidate as a person in 5 or 10 minutes of direct questioning than you can from days and days of news clips, prepared speeches, or even staged debates.

And here’s the thing: New Hampshire insists on getting those 10 minutes. If a candidate declines, they’re toast.

It’s not a perfect system. Nothing could be. I think the strongest knock against NH in this position is that it is not a particularly representative state. But I do think the people there have a few things going for them that qualify them for the position:

– It’s a small state, with some sparsely populated areas, in which political gatherings are likely to be smaller and more intimate.
– There are a high proportion who are politically aware. You can talk politics with just about anyone you meet on the street or in a restaurant, and almost never will you hear “I don’t follow politics.”
– There is a wide range of political views well-represented; it’s not as conservative as the license plates would have you believe. There’s an audience for everyone.
– Town hall meetings are cheap. You don’t need to spend multiple millions on airtime to launch a campaign (not that it wouldn’t help, of course.)

But those small-scale town halls won’t happen if they don’t happen first. Once a campaign gets going, everything is media and big rallies and the most bang for the buck. If an unknown candidate were to start in a state like California, or even Illinois, how much would they be heard?

New Hampshire going first isn’t perfect, but it does have its uses. Kind of like democracy being “the worst possible form of government, except for all the rest.”

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