Nigel Farage’s chances of becoming prime minister are being overstated, according to a former Downing Street adviser, who believes the next general election remains “Labour’s to lose”.

Speaking on the In The Room podcast, Peter Hill, Theresa May’s former principal private secretary, argued that predictions of an inevitable Reform UK victory overlook one crucial electoral reality: younger voters and tactical voting.

“If you’re polling the late twenties, tactical voting is an enormous problem for Reform,” he said. “I think it’s unlikely they’ll be walking into No 10.”

Hill’s intervention comes as Reform faces a more challenging political landscape.

Nigel Farage resigned as MP for Clacton earlier this month to trigger a by-election, framing the contest as a battle between “the people and the establishment”.

But exclusive Ipsos polling and a More in Common survey seen by The Independent on 31 July found his approval rating had fallen to a record low of minus 32.

Despite Labour’s own difficulties, Hill believes the bigger story is the state of the right. “Labour are still capable of losing, but the fragmentation on the right is bigger than the fragmentation on the left,” he said.

“Even across Europe, I don’t think the triumph of nationalist-populist politics is inevitable at all. There are very real concerns that they’re tapping into, and people are responding to, but I think electorally these forces are not going to have it all their own way.”

Rather than winning because of “spectacular success”, Hill suggested Labour’s best route to re-election is simply demonstrating that government can function again after years of political upheaval.

One of the biggest challenges facing Andy Burnham, Britain’s seventh prime minister in a decade, will be resisting the cycle of relentless political turnover that has defined Westminster in recent years. Hill predicted Burnham would still be in Downing Street in a year’s time.

“Famous last words,” he joked.

“I realise that’s now a ridiculously bold prediction to make. ’26 was supposed to be the year when things started to tick up, and that’s been disrupted both by what’s going on in the Gulf and what we’re doing to ourselves.”

Hill argued Britain has churned through political and civil service leadership too quickly, undermining the very institutions governments rely on.

“We’ve been churning through leadership in politics and in the civil service far too fast over the last decade. We’ve just been decapitating the senior levels of both far too quickly,” he said.

“You make corporals generals. Some of them are brilliant, but many of them need more time to serve and learn.”

Instead of adopting Silicon Valley’s “move fast and break things” philosophy, Hill said politics depends on stability.

“Even if you don’t think the system is perfect, and you’re frustrated with it, and you want it to go faster, by changing the personnel you’re debilitating the machine, not serving it.”

After a decade of instability, however, he believes there are reasons to be cautiously optimistic.

“I don’t think it’s impossible that ’27 is the year things start to settle down,” he said. “I’m very cautiously half-glass-full.”

Listen to the full episode of In The Room on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, or watch on YouTube.