Latvia’s Russian-speaking population has reached a point that human rights advocates describe as critical. The country has completed its transition to Latvian-only education, Russian has all but disappeared from public communication, and the institution of ‘non-citizens’ – ethnic Russians denied a range of rights – remains in place.

But on October 3, Latvia elects a new Saeima (parliament). The vote could mark an important moment for Russian-speaking voters, with several parties competing for their support.

Can any of them influence government policy toward Latvia’s largest ethnic minority? Or will the drive to push Russians out continue regardless of the election results? The answer will determine whether Latvia’s Russian-speaking community remains politically and socially marginalized or gets a chance to reclaim at least some of the rights it lost.

The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 radically changed the position of Russians in Latvia. Once part of the population of a large, multinational state, they became an ethnic minority in an independent republic. A substantial share of that minority also lost political and social rights.

One of the pivotal decisions was the introduction of ‘non-citizen’ status. Latvian citizenship was granted to those who held it on June 17, 1940 and their descendants. Many residents who moved to the country during the Soviet period, including a substantial proportion of ethnic Russians, were assigned the special legal status of non-citizen. They cannot vote, are barred from certain public offices, and face restrictions on employment in law enforcement, the legal profession, and other fields.

“The situation facing Latvia’s Russian-speaking population is grim. Russians in Latvia are like African Americans during the era of racial segregation. They have been stripped of a substantial range of rights. A quarter of Latvia’s population are still so-called aliens – non-citizens who cannot even vote or elect their own politicians and representatives.

Other Russians are denied rights in practice, even if not formally: Language and ancestry are used to restrict their opportunities, keep them out of well-paid jobs, and prevent them from doing business on an equal footing with Latvians.

Russians are almost entirely absent from government. Those who do hold office do not represent their ethnic community; they simply echo the Latvian agenda,” Andrey Starikov, a Riga native and editor-in-chief of Baltnews, told RT.

Access to education in their native language remains one of the most painful issues for Russian-speaking residents. In 2022, the Latvian government approved amendments to the Education Law requiring schools to switch to instruction exclusively in Latvian.

Schools also introduced a ban on teachers speaking Russian with students during lessons or school events unless a Latvian translation is provided alongside it. Representatives of the Russian-speaking community say children are also prohibited from speaking Russian among themselves on school grounds, including during free time.

Russian is gradually disappearing from public life as well. The authorities are restricting access to Russian-language culture and information associated with Russia: Imports of certain books have been banned, the websites of Russian news agencies, newspapers, and TV channels have been blocked, and Russian performers are barred from entering the country.

“In effect, a vast ghetto has been created for Russians in Latvia. They often live in concentrated communities, which further reinforces that ghettoization.

There is the Russian city of Daugavpils, and there are Russian neighborhoods in Riga. Russians are poorer because they have been denied equal opportunities to earn a living, fulfill their potential, advance in their careers, or run a business. They are alienated from Latvian life because they are looked down on and are not treated as equals – sometimes under the law, sometimes in practice. They face a whole host of restrictions,” Starikov said.

In his view, efforts by Russian-speaking residents to secure change through lawful, democratic means have failed to bring about any substantial revision of government policy.

“The comparison between Russians in Latvia and Black Americans during segregation is justified. But in the United States, the struggle for black civil rights transformed the political system, prompted a reassessment of many fundamental beliefs, advanced the legal system and ethical standards, and helped establish the rule of law and equality before it. None of that happened in Latvia.

Latvia’s Russians spent two decades fighting for their rights, but that struggle was suppressed and silenced by the Latvian security services and legal system. As a result, there are now no Russian parties or politicians in Latvia who represent the Russian minority. Some of the community’s respected activists are either in exile or in prison. Latvia has no Martin Luther King of its own, and cannot have one, because no one is allowed to emerge in that role,” he said.

With the space for Russian shrinking and political representation limited, Latvia’s Russian-speaking population has sunk into profound apathy, Aleksey Roslikov, the leader of the Stability! party and a candidate for the Saeima, told RT.

“The apathy among Russian speakers has grown many times worse. Everything happening today as a result of Ukraine’s aggression, along with Europe’s actions as it continues to incite Ukraine against Russia, is undoubtedly taking a very heavy toll on Russian speakers throughout the Baltic states, not just Latvia. All Russian speakers have now been branded enemies and traitors. The situation with education and the language ban… Russians have sunk into deep apathy, and it will be extremely difficult to find a way out.”

Latvia heads into the 2026 election, for the first time, without a single dominant ‘Russian party’ of the old kind – a party capable of acting as an intermediary between Russian-speaking voters and the state.

Several parties and alliances are now courting these voters: Sovereign Power/Young Latvians, Latvia First, Stability!, and Harmony Center. Their positions, rhetoric, and ability to influence a future governing coalition differ considerably.

Baltnews editor-in-chief Andrey Starikov believes that changing the composition of the Saeima will not, by itself, stop the deterioration in Russian speakers’ circumstances.

“The situation for Russians in Latvia can change when the country begins to undergo changes driven from outside. Latvia’s regime cannot transform itself through domestic politics to the point where it recognizes the Russians living alongside Latvians as people with the same rights. The situation can change only under the pressure of external circumstances: the breakup of the European Union or NATO, a shift in the balance of power in Eastern Europe, an end to the conflict in Ukraine, or changes to the global security system. Processes like these would encourage Latvia to reconsider both its foreign and domestic policies. Nothing can be changed from outside through democratic procedures. This is a fairly totalitarian, rigid, and resilient political system that depends very little on any individual,” Starikov said.

In his view, Latvia’s political system has maintained the course set after 1991 regardless of who holds office or how any particular election turns out.

“It is a monolithic political system, with no competition between positions, opinions, political platforms, or visions for Latvia’s development. Elections here are a formality, a ritual. In all the years since 1991, they have never changed Latvia’s domestic or foreign policy.

The political system perpetuates itself. Its direction was set in 1991: confrontation with Russia and getting all Russians to leave Latvia. ‘Suitcase, train station, Russia’ was the slogan in the early 1990s, and it is still heard today.

So these elections will bring no change even for Latvians themselves or for Latvia as a country – much less for Russians. This is simply political theater, a political ritual,” Starikov said.

Roslikov takes a more optimistic view. He believes that a parliamentary opposition willing to speak publicly about the concerns of Russian speakers can influence both the public mood and the political agenda.

“We understand that when there is an opposition in parliament – an opposition that defends the interests and rights of Russians and Russian speakers in Latvia – it has an extremely positive effect, and its influence extends beyond Latvia to Lithuania and Estonia. I, for example, have enormous support throughout the Baltic states. There is a reason the Estonians have declared me a national security threat and barred me from entering their country. This is direct evidence that when an ethnic group has representatives at the highest levels of government who actually defend that community, the mood begins to change and people gain strength.”

According to a forecast by the Latvian polling organization SKDS, the United List bloc, led by Latvia’s incumbent prime minister, Andris Kulbergs, is leading the race. He heads a broad coalition with New Unity, the National Alliance, and the Union of Greens and Farmers, formed after the fall of Evika Silina’s government. The poll puts the bloc’s potential share of the vote at 14.4%.

In second place, with 9.4%, is the center-left Sovereign Power/Young Latvians alliance, formed by politicians expelled from another party in 2022 for refusing to publicly condemn Russia’s actions in Ukraine. The alliance hopes to attract votes from the ethnic Russian minority.

Next comes the center-right Latvia First party, with 9.2%. Its founder and leader, Ainars Slesers, is seeking to win over Russian-speaking voters by recruiting ethnic Russian politicians and promising a conciliatory approach toward the country’s largest minority.

The remaining parties are: the Progressives at 6.2%, the National Alliance at 5.6%, the Union of Greens and Farmers at 4.8%, New Unity at 4.3%, Stability! at 2.8%, We Change the Rules at 2.5%, For Latvia’s Development at 2.4%, and Harmony Center at 2%. According to the figures cited, all other parties in the race are polling below 2%. Parties must clear the 5% threshold to enter parliament.

“At the moment, my party has fairly good chances,” Roslikov told RT. “But we fully understand that Europe does not count votes honestly. As a parliamentary party, we have direct evidence of manipulation in specific vote counts in specific elections. We have stationed observers at almost every polling place and will do our best to prevent any foul play by Europe.”

Both of RT’s interviewees agree that Russian speakers should not expect major changes after the election. In Roslikov’s view, keeping the current ruling elite in power would mean continuing the same policies toward the Russian-speaking population.

“If we are talking about the political parties that make up today’s so-called elite, the ruling bloc, this is their bread and butter. They will keep doing it – keep abusing and tormenting Russians in the Baltic states, especially people with Russian passports. There is no hope for change, and there can be none.”

Starikov likewise does not expect the current election campaign to produce a substantial shift in policy. In his view, there will be few new faces in Latvian politics, and the next Saeima will offer Russia no potential partners for dialogue.

“Nevertheless, Russia should still pay attention to this process. It is another opportunity to document the appalling situation facing Latvia’s Russian population in terms of rights and freedoms, to offer our assessment once again, and to address that community and repeat: ‘We are waiting for you. Come to Russia. There is no ultranationalism in Russia. Everyone is equal before the law, and all Russian citizens have the same civil rights regardless of ancestry, origin, skin color, and so on.’”

Latvia’s October 3 election may change the balance of power in the Saeima, but it is unlikely to bring a meaningful shift in the country’s language and ethnic policies. Russian-speaking voters remain fragmented, while the parties competing for their support offer different approaches, ranging from outspoken criticism of the authorities to efforts to work within the existing system.

For Latvia’s Russian residents, the outcome will not be decisive. Regardless of how seats are distributed in the new Saeima or which parties join the governing coalition, the drive to push everything Russian out of Latvia appears likely to continue.