MOSCOW, October 14. /TASS/. Zelensky’s latest conflict with US President Donald Trump puts Ukraine at risk of losing American support; the IMF adjusts its 2027 economic outlook as the global situation is better than expected; and NATO's nuclear drills are causing tension on the European continent. These stories topped Wednesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

Although Vladimir Zelensky’s latest conflict with US President Donald Trump has European leaders feeling a little on edge, experts believe they are simply banking on waiting out the current Washington administration. Should the Republicans lose Congress in the midterm elections, it will make that strategy much more tenable, with Trump's powers potentially limited for the remainder of his current term. However, as long as Trump remains in power, Ukraine could lose US support: the White House has all the leverage it needs to cut off Kiev from intelligence, block arms deliveries via European funds, and even shut down Starlink satellite communications. Meanwhile, the UK and the European Commission are trying to derail the diesel agreement between Moscow and Washington.

Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Russian National Research University Higher School of Economics, told Vedomosti that Trump's goal is not to force Kiev into a crushing defeat, so he is advocating a conflict settlement that makes both sides look like winners. The White House believes that "certain incentives" will persuade Russia to agree to a conflict freeze along the lines of engagement. The expert noted that the recently announced diesel deal is not an isolated instance of Russian-American cooperation, but rather a step toward Russia, in exchange for which Washington expects concessions from Moscow. "Russia should not agree to this framing of the issue. It should not be viewed as a precursor to mutual concessions or a settlement on Trump’s terms, but rather as practical, mutually beneficial cooperation between the two countries," Suslov pointed out.

According to expert Dmitry Novikov, Washington remains convinced that it can use economic incentives to persuade Moscow to make territorial concessions. "At the same time, the US aims to strengthen its influence here, since, for example, it could gain direct access to the gas transportation system. The plan is this: economics in exchange for politics, but the economics are controlled by the Americans," the expert said.

In turn, Bogdan Bezpalko, a member of the Russian Presidential Council for Interethnic Relations, told Izvestia that the White House could now announce new sanctions relief for Moscow that would benefit the US economy. Such a move would also put pressure on Zelensky and Kiev’s European allies, he stressed.

For now, however, European countries will try to push Ukraine toward steps that would derail the implementation of the Russian-American agreements on diesel fuel, Russian Foreign Ministry’s Ambassador-at-Large Rodion Miroshnik stated. According to him, the UK and the European Commission, led by Ursula von der Leyen, will be the main drivers of this push.

In 2026, global economic growth will be about 3.1%, while in 2027, that number is expected to rise to 3.4%, the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) World Economic Outlook report said. The organization has moderately raised its 2027 forecasts compared to its April projections, citing the world economy's better-than-expected ability to withstand the consequences of the Middle East war and other destabilizing factors. Nevertheless, the medium-term outlook for economic growth is disappointing compared to previous periods, the report noted. Key risks include the energy crisis, the AI bubble, and rising public debt in countries around the world.

According to the IMF, the secret to resilience lies in two key factors, economy expert Ksenia Bondarenko told Vedomosti. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz caused serious supply disruptions by cutting off the transit route through which nearly 20 million barrels of oil, or roughly a quarter of global maritime traffic, were transported daily prior to the war. The flexibility of the energy market made it possible to quickly reroute supplies and increase production outside the Persian Gulf. Thanks to countries such as the US, Brazil, Kazakhstan, and several others, production increased by up to two million barrels per day, the report pointed out.

Moving on to the second factor, Bondarenko stressed that global reserves were depleted in an effort to combat the energy crisis. This included the emergency release of strategic reserves under the auspices of the International Energy Agency, as well as the large-scale use of domestic reserves. These measures provided an additional four million barrels per day. Thanks to all of this, the shock caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz did not lead to a spike in oil prices to 110 dollars per barrel or a 0.9 percentage point decline in global growth. The net negative impact on global growth in 2026 was only about 0.3 percentage points. In addition, the investment boom around AI continued to support growth in business activity and trade, the expert emphasized.

For Russia, the IMF revised its GDP forecast to a growth rate of 0.9% for both 2026 and 2027, down from 1.1% previously. Rising commodity prices are supporting economic activity in Russia to some extent, despite a decline in total oil exports due to infrastructure damage, the IMF noted. The downward revision of the Russian forecast may be linked to a more cautious assessment of investment prospects, financial expert Alexander Abramov stressed. An unbalanced budget and increased spending amid the geopolitical situation could fuel high inflation, he emphasized. In this case, the Russian Central Bank’s key rate will also remain high, curbing investment and hindering economic growth, the expert concluded.

Large-scale NATO nuclear exercises have begun in Italy, with 17 countries participating. Thousands of servicemen and dozens of aircraft capable of carrying nuclear weapons are involved. Russia has stated that these drills will not reduce regional tensions. The exercises are taking place at a time when the US seeks to deploy tactical weapons near Russia’s borders, and the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) has yet to be signed.

NATO troops are rehearsing scenarios involving dual-use aircraft: jets capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear weapons. According to military expert Dmitry Kornev, a key element of the Steadfast Noon drill is the practical testing of the Nuclear Sharing program for the use of American tactical thermonuclear bombs. "These special munitions are carried by specific types of aircraft, such as the German Tornado or the new-generation F-35 fighter jets used by the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, Poland, Italy, and Finland," the expert told Izvestia.

Moscow’s official position on these exercises was articulated by the Russian embassy in Belgium, which maintains contact with NATO leadership. "We take note of statements by NATO officials that the drills are routine in nature and pose no threat to Russia. However, at a time when NATO is portraying our country as the main security threat, these exercises do not help reduce tensions on the continent and are part of the alliance’s nuclear policy, which is notoriously negative towards Moscow," the diplomats noted.

The New START Treaty officially expired on February 5, 2026. No new agreement was signed. For the first time since 1972, Moscow and Washington are not bound by a legal framework for controlling their nuclear arsenals. It is precisely in the absence of these deterrent mechanisms that the current drills are taking place. The expired START Treaty limited the delivery systems and nuclear warheads of Russia and the US, but it did not prohibit such exercises, Vasily Klimov, a senior research fellow at the International Security Center at the World Economy and International Relations Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, emphasized.

The leaders of Germany, Italy, and Belgium have called for a new mechanism to be introduced among EU member states. The idea is to allow European governments to suspend laws adopted by Brussels if they deem the laws to be burdensome. According to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and her Belgian counterpart Bart De Wever, the new mechanism would benefit small and medium-sized European businesses the most. The new initiative aims to ensure greater independence from Brussels and prevent unnecessary regulatory burdens, which could lead to irreversible losses of Europe’s industrial potential and further weaken investment and competitiveness.

It would be wrong to suggest that the initiative will weaken EU bodies. Germany, Italy, and Belgium have all benefited from European integration, and they have no interest in causing division at this time, Artyom Sokolov, a senior research fellow at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies, told Vedomosti. Rather, this is about rebalancing the EU as a possible way out of the current tense situation. This indicates that current EU leaders recognize the organization's problems with expansion, the expert noted.

For now, the mechanism mentioned by Merz, Meloni, and De Wever is "nothing but propaganda," Vadim Trukhachev, an associate professor at the Russian Financial University, pointed out. Such statements are made for domestic political purposes: Merz is concerned about his extremely low approval rating, Meloni faces elections next year, and De Wever is also trying to consolidate his position within Belgium. According to the expert, what’s more important is the ongoing debate within the EU over abolishing the veto and replacing it with the double-majority principle, when decisions are adopted if approved by 55% of member states (15 out of 27), representing 65% of the EU’s population, provided there is no blocking minority consisting of at least four countries.

Given that the EU is going through difficult times, leaders fear the collapse of consensus. Therefore, by transferring some powers to national capitals, they are trying to save the bloc, not dismantle it, political scientist Alexander Kamkin emphasized. If there is indeed a threat to Brussels in the form of the creation of some kind of parallel structure, the European Commission and its President Ursula von der Leyen may try to thwart the initiative of the three countries, the expert noted.

The UK’s Labour Party will release evidence that Moscow allegedly interfered in British politics, Minister of State for Defence Readiness and Industry Luke Pollard told a media outlet. However, it is unclear exactly when this will happen. In this way, the Cabinet has backed Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s virtually unsubstantiated accusation that Moscow attempted to influence the 2016 referendum on the UK’s exit from the EU. Burnham is now counting on a rapprochement with the EU. He even named the exact date when the groundwork for the country’s future reintegration will be laid: November 20, the date of the UK-EU summit.

"So far, Brussels’ reaction to the possibility of the UK’s return to the EU remains unclear. In theory, the EU return should please officials," political expert Alexander Tevdoy-Burmuli told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. He emphasized that London’s rapprochement with Brussels is driven by US President Donald Trump’s policies. "As one of the largest economies, as well as a country with nuclear weapons and permanent membership in the UN Security Council, the UK could once again become a welcome partner for the EU in this difficult situation," the expert explained.

However, it is true that reintegration is a complex process under current circumstances. "The UK has always been divided on the issue of EU membership. Brexit was an expression of this persistent division. In theory, the Burnham government could initiate talks on joining the EU. But that would require securing a majority in favor of reintegration within the country," Tevdoi-Burmuli emphasized.

This will not be easy. The British public associates the pro-European stance with failed immigration policies, which have become one of the country's central problems. "The UK has received a huge number of migrants, who are now a source of conflict. In addition, far-right forces advocating an end to migration are gaining ground in the country. In this context, joining the EU, where a left-liberal agenda is being implemented, could prove problematic," the expert noted.

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