FORT LAUDERDALE  (VINnews) — A series of recent public opinion surveys shows Republican candidates holding leads in Florida’s contests for governor and U.S. Senate, though the races remain competitive and closer than the large GOP margins of recent cycles.

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In the race to succeed term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis, U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds leads former U.S. Rep. David Jolly by an average of 4.7 percentage points across four polls of likely voters released in the past week, according to a compilation by the South Florida Sun Sentinel. The average stands at 48 percent for Donalds and 43.3 percent for Jolly, with neither candidate reaching 50 percent.

Individual results varied. A Targoz Market Research survey for the James Madison Institute found Donalds ahead 52 percent to 42 percent. A Mason-Dixon poll for NBC6 and Telemundo showed Donalds leading 48 percent to 41 percent. A YouGov survey had Donalds at 47 percent and Jolly at 45 percent. A St. Pete Polls survey for Florida Politics found the candidates essentially tied at 45 percent each.

In the U.S. Senate race, appointed Sen. Ashley Moody leads state Rep. Angie Nixon by an average of 6.7 points, 49.5 percent to 42.8 percent. Most individual polls showed Moody ahead, though she remained short of 50 percent in several of them.

Political scientists and analysts described the results as evidence of a tighter environment than in 2022, when DeSantis won by 19.4 points and then-Sen. Marco Rubio by 16.4 points. Florida has moved further Republican since then, with GOP registration now exceeding Democratic registration by roughly 1.55 million voters.

“The trendline tends to suggest that this is going to be a tighter election than it has been in the last couple of cycles,” Florida Atlantic University political scientist Kevin Wagner said in comments reported by the Sun Sentinel. He added that while Democrats are not favored, the numbers indicate real contests in November.

Independents favored the Democratic candidates in several of the surveys, while large majorities of Republicans and Democrats supported their respective party nominees. Campaign representatives offered differing interpretations: Donalds’ team highlighted field efforts and focus on affordability, while Jolly’s side emphasized continued outreach on housing, healthcare and other issues.

Major election forecasters rate the governor’s race as leaning Republican and the Senate race as solid or safe Republican. Inflation and the cost of living ranked as the top issue for many voters in the polls. The general election is set for Nov. 3.

(This article is based on publicly reported poll data compiled by the South Florida Sun Sentinel. VINnews contributed to the report.)