NOAA forecasts a very strong El Niño this winter, giving safety professionals regional guidance to prepare for likely worker hazards.

Winter weather preparedness may take on added importance for workplace safety professionals this year, as one of the strongest El Niño events in decades continues to develop. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center reported in its Sept. 17 seasonal outlook that El Niño conditions are present and strengthening, with a greater than 90 percent chance of a “very strong” event during fall and winter 2026-27. In fact, NOAA gives a 75 percent chance that this will be a historic event exceeding the strength of every El Niño since 1950.

That doesn’t mean every part of the country should expect the same winter, or that every workplace will encounter extreme conditions. Seasonal outlooks describe shifts in probabilities rather than predict individual storms. But NOAA’s outlook provides safety professionals with useful information for assessing which winter hazards deserve particular attention in their emergency and operational planning.

One of the clearest signals associated with the developing El Niño is increased precipitation across much of the southern United States.

From late fall through winter, NOAA says the dominant precipitation signal stretches across the southern and central United States and northward along the Atlantic Coast into New England. In California, probabilities favoring wetter-than-normal conditions increase as winter progresses, reaching 50 percent to 60 percent near the coast during portions of the winter outlook. Meanwhile, portions of the interior Northwest and Great Lakes are modestly favored for below-normal precipitation.

For safety professionals in California and other parts of the Southwest, increased precipitation can mean more than rain. Flooding, debris flows, slippery walking-working surfaces, road closures and power outages can affect both workplaces and employees traveling to and from them.

Across the southern Plains, Gulf Coast and Southeast, heavy precipitation can similarly create flooding and transportation hazards. Along the Atlantic Coast, employers may need to prepare for combinations of heavy rain, flooding, snow and ice depending on temperatures during individual storms.

Employers in areas forecast to be warmer or drier shouldn’t interpret those seasonal trends as an all-clear. A warmer-than-normal winter can still contain periods of dangerous cold, snow and ice.

This article originally appeared in the October 2026 issue of Occupational Health & Safety.

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