Venezuela’s hopes for a democratic transition are fading as the US works to take control of its vast oil wealth. Billions in US and foreign investment could strengthen the chavista regime and give future American presidents powerful incentives to preserve the political status quo.

LONDON—When the United States ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro earlier this year and put him in a New York jail cell, Venezuelans at home and abroad rejoiced. For the first time in 27 years, the country faced a real possibility of regime change. But removing an autocrat does not necessarily dismantle the authoritarian system that kept him in power, particularly when the man who removed him is an aspiring authoritarian and kleptocrat in his own right.