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СпутникиРНSpaceXРоскосмосNASAExciting Times, But Don't Get Too Excited
There's no question that the past 5 days have been the best 5 days that we've seen in a long time in terms of direction movement in rates. They're made all the more miraculous because the past 2 days included much higher inflation readings. In a vacuum, inflation data was bad for rates. But the opposing forces are/were stronger in this case. There are two to consider: AI/tech correction and bond seller exhaustion. We've said for a while that yields would eventually be high enough to prompt some value buying and that 5.34-5.35% may be 2026's version of 2023's 5.00%. As luck would have it, that factor coincided with a rapid increase in the tech sector, primarily driven by Coreweave, but with the word "contagion" also being thrown around. Here's why you should temper excitement: to whatever extent "contagion" doesn't materialize, bonds will lose a good amount of the support they've recently enjoyed. What we've seen so far could be considered "act 1" of a very enjoyable show, but it could also be a short story that ends here. The only surefire justification for a bigger rally is a sustained economic slowdown, preferable coinciding with the war ending and oil falling.
Econ Data / Events
Core PPI m/m (Sep)
0.7% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.2% prev
Core PPI y/y (Sep)
5.0% vs 4.4% f'cast, 4.6% prev
PPI m/m (Sep)
1.3% vs 0.5% f'cast, 0.4% prev
PPI y/y (Sep)
6.3% vs 5.3% f'cast, 5.4% prev
Retail Sales (Sep)
0.8% vs 0.3% f'cast, 1.2% prev
Retail Sales Control Group MoM (Sep)
0.1% vs 0.3% f'cast, 1.4% prev
| # | Наименование новости | Тональность | Информативность | Дата публикации |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bonds Still Capable of Selling | 0 | 7.82 | 16-10-2026 |
| 2 | What's Up With The Huge Paradoxical Rally?! | 0 | 7.88 | 15-10-2026 |
| 3 | Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher Today, But Sharply Lower This Week | 0 | 10.42 | 16-10-2026 |
| 4 | Bonds End Flat After Front-Running The Decent Data | 0 | 7.88 | 12-08-2026 |
| 5 | Could Have Been Better. Could Have Been Worse | 0 | 5.9 | 16-10-2026 |
| 6 | Another Big Improvement to Another 3 Week Low | 0 | 10.19 | 15-10-2026 |
| 7 | Solid Data-Driven Gains | 0 | 15.48 | 13-08-2026 |
| 8 | 10-year Treasury yield is little changed as traders weigh new U.S. inflation data | 0 | 7 | 31-07-2025 |
| 9 | Tech leads shares higher in Asia as oil slips | 0 | 6.22 | 21-09-2026 |
| 10 | Slightly Stronger But There's a Catch | 0 | 5 | 09-07-2026 |