US President Donald Trump’s decision to waive punitive tariffs on countries buying Russian oil and gas gives India relief from the threat of additional duties of up to 100 per cent on its exports to the US. | Photo Credit: Evan Vucci

US President Donald Trump’s decision to waive punitive tariffs on countries buying Russian oil and gas gives India relief from the threat of additional duties of up to 100 per cent on its exports to the US. But it leaves Washington with the option of reviving the penalties, potentially using them as leverage in ongoing bilateral trade agreement (BTA) negotiations, experts noted.

New Delhi’s position on sourcing crude oil from Moscow and other countries will continue to be guided by its national interest and energy security, even as the order provides for continued US monitoring of Russian oil purchases and allows the US administration to withdraw the waiver and reimpose punitive tariffs, sources tracking the matter told businessline.

“Indian officials had been in discussions with their US counterparts over the implications of the legislation and the possibility of a waiver and there was optimism that it would happen after Trump struck a diesel deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin to supply the American and global markets with Russian refined fuel. New Delhi’s stance on sourcing energy based on its national interest remains unchanged and interactions with Washington would continue,” the source said.

For India, the waiver buys time to negotiate a trade deal but offers no lasting certainty, pointed out Ajay Srivastava from trade research body GTRI. Despite Russia’s share of Indian oil imports declining from 51 per cent in July to 44 per cent in August, as India bought more from the US and from the UAE, Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 (SRIA) remains law leaving Washington free to revive the tariff threat to extract concessions in bilateral trade talks.

“India should protect its energy security, buy oil on commercial terms and prepare for renewed US pressure. Temporary tariff relief is no basis for permanent trade concessions,” Srivastava said.

In an executive order dated October 16, Trump waived the duties and several sanctions provisions under the Lindsey O. Graham SRIA, which he signed into law on September 18. The order provides for a 100 per cent increase in the rate of duty on goods from the five largest importers of Russian-origin crude oil and natural gas if they knowingly make new purchases from October 18. It also provides for a 500 per cent increase in duties on Russian goods and 100 per cent increases for the five largest facilitators of Russian oil sanctions evasion, subject to the specified exceptions and waivers.

The decision does not repeal SRIA or remove the President’s authority to invoke its provisions. Trump has instead used the waiver mechanism under Section 115, certifying to Congress that the decision is in the US national interest.

“The waiver exposes the uncertainty at the heart of US trade policy. China already had protection against US tariff increases until January 10. The message is clear: US interests determine when penalties apply, while the ability to retaliate helps secure protection. China can push back. India risks repeated pressure unless it demonstrates that coercion carries a cost,” Srivastava said.

Published on October 17, 2026