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Every year, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences gathers to pick the best movie of the previous year — and sometimes, the Best Picture Oscar winners are genuinely exceptional films like "Parasite" and "Moonlight." Other winners — including, but not limited to, "Green Book," "Crash," and "CODA" — send cinephiles into full-blown crashouts as "worthier" movies miss out on the top prize. (I'm as guilty of this as anybody else. Indeed, I'm still angry that Tom Hooper is walking around with the Academy Award for directing that he won for "The King's Speech" when that should have gone to David Fincher for "The Social Network" — a film that should have taken home the Best Picture Oscar to boot.) The Academy's track record certainly isn't perfect, but that doesn't stop movie lovers like me from tuning in every year to see who wins the top prize.

The 2026 winner, Paul Thomas Anderson's Americana triumph "One Battle After Another" — which also won Anderson his first-ever directing Oscar after years of great work — had a tough battle (sorry) to face on its way to victory, fighting tooth and nail against Ryan Coogler's equally excellent Southern Gothic film "Sinners." So, who's going to win at the 2027 ceremony? It's anyone's guess, but we've got some ideas ... and thoughts about what else might get nominated, with everything but the projected winner and possible upset in alphabetical order.

Universal Pictures

I'm not saying "The Odyssey" is going to cakewalk into a Best Picture Oscar win by any means. After all, Christopher Nolan just won in 2024 for "Oppenheimer," and conventional wisdom tells us that the Academy doesn't love giving the same person the big awards over and over again. Still, I think "The Odyssey" is so undeniable that it's still the one to beat for Best Picture. With Matt Damon as the arrogant but all-too-human hero Odysseus (who comes up with the infamous Trojan Horse trick to sack Troy and win a war, only to get totally lost on the way home because men will literally face off against witches and cyclops before asking for directions), "The Odyssey" is a triumph on essentially every level. Not only is Damon phenomenal and a clear front-runner for the Best Actor Oscar, but Anne Hathaway, Robert Pattinson, Samantha Morton, and John Leguizamo could all get recognized for their respective supporting performances as Odysseus' world-weary wife Penelope, Penelope's slick but slimy suitor Antinous, the solitary witch Circe, and Odysseus' loyal swineherd Eumaeus.

At the end of the day, "The Odyssey" seems destined to duke it out with "Dune: Part Three" (more on that in a moment) for a lot of below-the-line technical categories, but unless another movie sees a huge surge, I still think it's the clear front-runner. Between its luxuriously beautiful shots, seamless practical effects, and great performances, "The Odyssey" is filled with gorgeous movie magic, and Academy voters might be too seduced by its perfectly executed tricks to remember that Nolan won both a Best Director and Best Picture Oscar earlier this decade.

Warner Bros.

As of this writing, the general populace hasn't seen "Dune: Part Three" yet. However, based on the overwhelming critical and commercial success of Denis Villeneuve's first two Frank Herbert adaptations, I think it's a pretty safe bet that "Dune: Part Three" will be a big player when awards season kicks off properly. In this long-awaited threequel, we'll catch up with Timothée Chalamet's protagonist turned antihero Paul Atreides after the events of 2024's "Dune: Part Two," which saw Paul take over control of the Imperium, defeat Austin Butler's Feyd-Rautha of House Harkonnen, and kick off a holy war as he embraces his role as the messiah, aka. Lisan al Gaib. He also, in the process, drove away his one true love Chani (Zendaya) by not only taking power so bluntly but by simultaneously deciding to wed Princess Irulan (Florence Pugh), the daughter of Christopher Walken's Emperor Shaddam IV, who has surrendered completely to Paul.

Alongside Chalamet's tyrannical Emperor, we'll see several returning players from the previous "Dune" films in this movie, including Javier Bardem as the Fremen leader Stilgar, Josh Brolin as the Atreides family's weapon expert Gurney Halleck, and Rebecca Ferguson as Lady Jessica, along with newcomers like Robert Pattinson's wily Tleilaxu dancer Scytale. Again, "Dune: Part Three" has yet to prove that it can best something as massive as "The Odyssey," but don't rule it out.

Neon

Luca Guadagnino has made some incredible movies ("Challengers," "Call Me By Your Name," "Queer") and some duds ("After the Hunt" comes to mind) in recent years, and if early reactions to his 2026 film "Artificial" are any indication, he's got another hit on his hands. "Artificial" was originally set to be distributed by Amazon MGM Studios before the real Sam Altman allegedly, potentially, maybe interfered with the planned release. (He denies it.) Now that Neon is distributing the movie, though, we'll get to see Guadagnino's take on the real-life story of Altman, his company OpenAI, and his co-founder Ilya Sutskever ("Anora" standout and Oscar nominee Yura Borisov), who instigated a coup against Altman in 2023.

"Artificial" has a seriously star-studded cast that includes Monica Barbaro, Cooper Hoffman, Jason Schwartzman, Chris O'Dowd, Ike Barinholtz, Mark Rylance, Zosia Mamet, and Billie Lourd, just to name a few — but it's also an urgent, timely, and apparently jarring warning about the advent of massive AI corporations. The Academy loves a hyper-relevant project, and aside from the truly alarming fact that it ignored "Challengers" completely, I think odds are good that its members will recognize "Artificial" and include it in the Best Picture race.

A24

In 2024, Jesse Eisenberg stepped behind the camera to make "A Real Pain" — and though his actual feature film debut came in 2022 courtesy of "When You Finish Saving the World," "A Real Pain" is the one that put him on the map as a director and screenwriter. Most importantly, it earned multiple Oscar nominations, with Eisenberg getting one for Best Original Screenplay and his co-star Kieran Culkin sweeping the entire awards season to emerge triumphant with a statue for Best Supporting Actor. (Was this category fraud? Yes, because Culkin is a co-lead, but I love my "Succession" slime puppy Culkin ... so, I'm at peace with the whole thing.) Now, he's back with his 2026 film "The Debut," and I think Eisenberg has a real shot at making it into the Best Picture race.

So, why will "The Debut" clinch a nomination that "A Real Pain" didn't get? Well, Eisenberg propelled his co-star to an Oscar win, for one ... but more than that, the cast of "The Debut" is wild. Oscar winner Julianne Moore leads the pack as Mona Friedman, an introverted suburban housewife who breaks out of her comfort zone by auditioning for a local theater production run by the extremely intense Jerry Blankenbuehler (Oscar nominee Paul Giamatti, who also has a pretty good chance of becoming Eisenberg's second Best Supporting Actor winner in a row). With Eisenberg playing a supporting role as well, "The Debut" co-stars Halle Bailey, Bernadette Peters, Lili Cooper, Bonnie Milligan, Patrick Fabian, Craig Bierko, Stephen Adly Guirgis, Havana Rose Liu, and Cara Buono, just to name a few. The Academy loves movies about acting, and I think "The Debut" is a strong enough pick to make it into the Best Picture category.

Focus Features

Every year, a different movie is marked as "Oscar bait." In the lead-up to the 2026 ceremony, that title fell to "Hamnet," a weepy literary adaptation about the loss of a child that earned a spot in the Best Picture category, won its star Jessie Buckley an Oscar, and partially focused on Paul Mescal's William Shakespeare writing "Hamlet" out of grief for his son. That's what's particularly "funny" about Simon Stone's 2026 movie "Elsinore," which I think is a near-lock to score a Best Picture Oscar nod and is also about a production of "Hamlet" ... and which centers around the art of acting. (Again, in a non-derogatory way, the Academy loves that stuff.)

In "Elsinore," Andrew Scott — known for Netflix's "Ripley" and playing the infamous "Hot Priest" in "Fleabag" — plays real-life actor Ian Charleson, who spent the final months of his life grappling with an AIDS diagnosis (and fairly severe symptoms, for that matter) while at the same time performing the title role in "Hamlet" at London's National Theatre. Scott, per usual, is transcendent as an artist choosing to spend the end of his time on Earth doing what he loves, and he's joined by unbelievable talents like Billie Piper (as a casting director who becomes a confidante and nurse to Ian), Joe Locke (a fellow patient in the AIDS wing at a London hospital), and Juliet Stevenson (as a fellow actor), just to name a few. "Elsinore" might fit the definition of Oscar bait, but it would nonetheless be a worthy inclusion in the Best Picture race.

A24

No other 2026 movie has shaken me to my very core like Olivia Wilde's third feature film "The Invite," and I mean that as a compliment. My jaw dropped multiple times, I laughed, I cringed, and at one point, I even cried. Written by Will McCormack and Rashida Jones (who adapted it from Cesc Gay's 2020 Spanish-language movie "The People Upstairs (Sentimental)"), "The Invite" is a four-person film that feels like a play (partly because Gay's movie was itself based on a stage play he wrote), letting us into the apartment of the deeply unhappy married couple Joe and Angela (Seth Rogen and Wilde) as they prepare to host their upstairs neighbors, Hawk and Pina (Edward Norton and Penélope Cruz). Not only are Hawk and Pina unbearably cool, but there's an elephant in the room ... which is that their lovemaking is, if Joe and Angela are to be believed, so loud that they can hear every encounter clearly in their home.

Wilde's skills as a director are on full, gorgeous display here (while I don't think her last film, "Don't Worry Darling" was quite as bad as everyone says, "The Invite" blows it out of the water), and every performance is perfect as well, from Rogen's music teacher and perennially stoned Joe to Norton's cerebral and arrogant Hawk to Cruz's alluring and brilliant Pina to Wilde's twitchy, anxious Angela. Not only do I think "The Invite" should be invited into the Best Picture category, but I also think Wilde should make Academy history by being nominated for Best Director and Best Actress as well.

Elastica/Le Pacte

Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi, known for their work in their home country of Spain, might just snag a spot in this year's Best Picture category for their sprawling queer epic "La bola negra," which is loosely adapted by Calvo, Ambrossi, and Alberto Conejero from an unfinished work of the same name by Federico García Lorca as well as Conejero's own play, "La piedra obscura." Told across three narratives that take place in 1932, 1937, and 2017, respectively, "La bola negra" focuses on three men in those time periods.

1932 belongs to Carlos (Milo Quifes), the heir to his wealthy family's fortune who finds himself shunned from high society due to rumors about his queer identity. In 1937, we meet a young trumpeter named Sebastián (Álvaro Lafuente Calvo, who performs as singer-songwriter Guitarricadelafuente), who narrowly survives an attack in the Spanish Civil War and is forced into serving the Nationalists by guarding their prisoner Rafael Rodríguez Rapún (Miguel Bernardeau), all while he discovers a queer enclave courtesy of Nené Romero (Penélope Cruz). Then, in 2017, we're introduced to historian and writer Alberto López Azcuna (Carlos González), who receives a copy of Lorca's work as a sort of inheritance ... and wants to learn more about queer history in Spain.

"La bola negra" is ambitious, massive, and absolutely beautiful, thanks to its stunning performances and careful direction from Calvo and Ambrossi. Ever since "Parasite" took the top prize, more and more non-English language picks have found their way into the Best Picture race, and I'm betting we'll see "La bola negra" join the other nominees in 2027.

A24

Before his narrative feature debut "Primetime," director Lance Oppenheim was best known for documentaries like the unexpectedly gripping "Ren Faire" — and when you watch "Primetime," you can see Oppenheim's instincts as a documentary filmmaker on display. I don't mean that as a bad thing — quite the opposite! In fact, I think "Primetime," which re-enacts key parts of the making of the "Dateline NBC" spin-off "To Catch a Predator" with a script from Ajon Singh, probably would have been sort of a dud with any other director at the helm. Oppenheim's vision is uncompromising, unflinching, and uncomfortable, and it's the perfect fit for an unsettling, disturbing, and often darkly hilarious movie about what happens when you make content out of criminal justice.

Robert Pattinson is absolutely perfect as a self-obsessed, self-important, and ultimately sad Chris Hansen, the infamous host of "To Catch a Predator" (his line read of Hansen's famous phrase "You know how this looks, right?" is absolutely astounding), but the performances found in "Primetime" are exhilaratingly great across the board. Merritt Wever and Skyler Gisondo should, by all rights, both get nominations for playing Chris' ruthless producer Andie Bender and the sensitive but ambitious decoy Dan Plum, respectively, but you'll also catch great turns from Alex Winter, Jonathan Lipnicki, Phoebe Bridgers, Tony Revolori, and Anna Faris throughout the film. "Primetime" is weird, urgent, and incredible, and if the Academy doesn't nominate it for Best Picture, its members will be overlooking one of the year's best movies.

Amazon MGM Studios

Ever since "The Dark Knight" failed to make it into the Best Picture category at the 2009 Academy Awards (back when there were only five spots for nominees), a major blockbuster has pretty much always found its way into the expanded category, which now boasts 10 spots. (Recent-ish examples include "Avatar" and its sequel "Avatar: The Way of Water," "Barbie," and "Mad Max: Fury Road.") Here's the caveat: the blockbuster hardly ever wins. ("Oppenheimer" is an exception, but frankly, nobody knew in advance that an R-rated three-hour biopic about the father of the atomic bomb would become a near billion-dollar box office hit.) That's where Phil Lord and Christopher Miller's 2026 box office smash "Project Hail Mary," adapted from Andy Weir's best-selling novel of the same name, comes into play ... because if any non-"Odyssey" blockbuster is making it into the Best Picture race, it's this one.

Ryan Gosling would, in a less competitive year, be a lock for the Best Actor race for carrying nearly this entire movie on his back as biology teacher turned space-bound savior Dr. Ryland Grace. Meanwhile, Sandra Hüller could still snag a Best Supporting Actress nomination for her role as Petrova task force leader Eva Stratt, and James Ortiz, who voices and physically portrays the alien Rocky, is eligible for Best Supporting Actor. I worry that the worthy performances in this movie will get overlooked (which is frustrating, because this is ultimately a tricky film to pull off), but I also don't think there's any question that we'll see "Project Hail Mary" compete for Best Picture and perhaps take home some below-the-line awards in the process. ("Fury Road" was the most nominated movie in 2016 and took home six tech trophies while losing for Best Picture, to provide a precedent.)

Searchlight Pictures

Irish playwright and director Martin McDonagh won his first Academy Award in 2005 for his live-action short film "Six Shooter" and a Best Original Screenplay nomination for "In Bruges" at the 2009 ceremony. All the same, he didn't become a true Oscar darling until his 2017 film "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri" snagged Academy trophies for its lead Frances McDormand and supporting actor Sam Rockwell. Then, in 2022, McDonagh returned to the Oscars with "The Banshees of Inisherin," which earned acting nominations for stars Colin Farrell, Brendan Gleeson, Kerry Condon, and Barry Keoghan. Now, McDonagh's 2026 movie "Wild Horse Nine" pairs his previous collaborator Rockwell with living legend John Malkovich, making it a pretty undeniable pick for the Best Picture contest.

"Wild Horse Nine" (which features Steve Buscemi, Parker Posey, and Tom Waits in supporting roles as well) casts Malkovich and Rockwell as, respectively, veteran CIA officer Chris Carlisle and his mentee Lee Chesterfield, a pair who are sent to Chile's Easter Islands right on the precipice of the 1973 coup d'etat in the country. Not only are Rockwell and Malkovich downright magical together (their easy chemistry really makes the movie sing), but McDonagh's sharp script and the story's twists and turns help make this one of the best films of 2026, without question. Yes, McDonagh is an Oscar darling, but this movie is just so good.

Oscar nominations will be announced on January 21, 2027 — and the ceremony will broadcast on March 14.