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The Guardian has reported that the County Councils Network (CCN) predicts local authorities could accumulate more than £5bn in SEND debt by April 2027, just months after the government cleared more than £5bn in historic debt.

These predictions suggest that the total could double over the next year, which would continue to put further pressure on already stretched council budgets.

The growing number of requests for support through education, health and care plans (EHCPs) is a major factor behind the rising costs. These legally binding plans set out the support required by children and young people with additional needs, including autism, ADHD, speech difficulties and learning disabilities.

In January, the number of young people with EHCPs reached 718,000, up 12.5% from the previous 12 months. This was the largest annual rise since the plans were introduced in 2014.

Official figures show that a further 1.3 million young people have identified special educational needs.

The increase in applications may partly reflect parents’ and schools’ concerns about upcoming government reforms. Families appear to be seeking formal support before changes to the current system take effect.

Local authorities worry that rising SEND provision costs could threaten their financial stability and leave them struggling to meet other responsibilities.

The CCN has called on ministers to guarantee that 90% of future SEND debts will be covered by the government. Without further financial support, some councils could struggle to meet their legal obligations while protecting frontline services.

Several authorities already forecast substantial overspending in the 2026-27 financial year. Hampshire County Council expects a £200m deficit, while Surrey, East Sussex, Kent, Worcestershire and Norfolk are among other councils facing significant financial pressure.

Councils currently keep accumulated SEND debts off their balance sheets through a special arrangement with the Treasury. However, this arrangement expires in April 2028, potentially leaving councils responsible for debts they cannot afford to repay.

The government plans to move towards a more inclusive approach, with mainstream schools providing greater support for children with additional needs. In principle, this would reduce reliance on EHCPs.

However, concerns remain about whether schools will have sufficient resources to meet rising demand and deliver the proposed changes.

A government-commissioned report published last week found that the increase in mental health and neurodevelopmental conditions was real and was causing distress to those affected. It also warned that demand for support would be unsustainable without new ways of managing pressure on public services.

The report highlighted the growing gap between demand for EHCPs and the education system’s capacity to respond. Of 105,300 statutory assessments carried out in 2024, 94% resulted in an EHCP being awarded.