Tropical Storm Isaias has formed in the Gulf, and meteorologists warn it is likely to strengthen into a Category 2 hurricane in the next few days.

As of Wednesday morning, Isaias was in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, about 285 miles west of Progreso, Mexico, and 580 miles southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River. 

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said in a statement: 'Although not seen in the forecast, some weakening seems likely when the storm nears the Gulf Coast due to an increase in vertical wind shear, but it is still expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it makes landfall.'

Forecast models track Isaias approaching the US coast on Friday, with landfall expected sometime that evening into early Saturday, striking between Biloxi, Mississippi and Panama City, Florida.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency ahead of the storm. 

'Floridians should take this time to get disaster plans in place and ensure their hurricane supply kit is stocked,' DeSantis said in a statement. 

AccuWeather Hurricane Experts say this will become the first hurricane of the 2026 season, making it the latest first hurricane to form in the Atlantic basin in over 100 years. 

The NHC said: Hurricane Watches will likely be required for a portion of the U.S. northern Gulf coast later today.

AccuWeather’s forecast shows Isaias moving northeast across the Gulf on Thursday before turning north toward the US coast on Friday.

The storm is projected to reach Category 1 hurricane strength by 8pm ET Thursday, then strengthen to Category 2 before making landfall near the Mississippi-Alabama border around 11pm ET Friday.

Isaias is then expected to push north through Mississippi into Tennessee on Saturday, weakening into a low-pressure system by that evening.

From Friday through the weekend, Isaias is expected to bring three to six inches of rain along the northern US Gulf Coast, from far southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, with some areas receiving up to 10 inches, according to the NHC. 

The worst wind damage and coastal flooding from storm surge are expected near Isaias’s landfall point and just to its east.

AccuWeather forecasts gusts of 100 to 120mph near and just east of the storm’s center if it strengthens into a hurricane before coming ashore.

A wider stretch of the Southeast, from the central Gulf Coast into Tennessee, could face tropical storm-force winds of 40 to 60mph.

AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said: 'Another hazard from the storm will be the risk of severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes and waterspouts.

'The bulk of the severe weather is likely near and east of the center, but that risk can extend for hundreds of miles to the east this weekend.' 

The Atlantic has yet to produce a hurricane in 2026, putting the season within reach of a record set in 1905 for the latest first hurricane.

If forecast models are correct and Isaias develops into a hurricane, it would be deemed a record-breaking storm. 

Meteorologist Matt Devitt said on X: 'Isaias will likely be one of the most significant storms of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season with a landfall in the US.'