South Korean game developer Pearl Abyss is expected to report a 50% decline in third-quarter operating profit from the previous quarter. Although Crimson Desert, released in March, has been a commercial success, sales were heavily concentrated in the initial launch period.

Pearl Abyss is seeking a fourth-quarter rebound through downloadable content (DLC). However, its next title, DokeV, seen as a key earnings catalyst, is not expected to launch for another two years, raising the prospect of another prolonged earnings gap for the company.

According to the securities industry on Oct. 15, Meritz Securities recently forecast Pearl Abyss’ third-quarter revenue at 119.6 billion won and operating profit at 33.5 billion won, down 37% and 50%, respectively, from the previous quarter.

Pearl Abyss posted first-quarter revenue of 328.5 billion won and operating profit of 212.1 billion won, achieving record quarterly results following the launch of Crimson Desert. However, second-quarter revenue fell 41% to 192.6 billion won, while operating profit plunged 68% to 67.6 billion won.

The earnings decline is directly linked to slowing sales of Crimson Desert. Revenue from the game dropped 48% from 266.5 billion won in the first quarter to 136.1 billion won in the second. Although cumulative global sales exceeded 6 million copies by June, the game failed to sustain its initial sales momentum.

As a result, Pearl Abyss lowered its full-year earnings guidance in August. The company cut its revenue forecast to 709.8 billion to 743.8 billion won from the previous range of 879 billion to 975.4 billion won. Its operating profit forecast was reduced to 315.5 billion to 345.2 billion won from 487.6 billion to 572.6 billion won.

The revenue decline reflects the business model of packaged games. Unlike online games that generate recurring revenue, packaged games rely primarily on one-time purchases. Once initial sales momentum fades, opportunities for a rebound are limited. Without additional content or new sales channels and platforms, declining revenue is difficult to avoid.

Pearl Abyss is responding by selling additional content for Crimson Desert. The company plans to release its first paid DLC, Crimson Desert Enhanced: Charting the Unknown, on Oct. 30, two weeks later than the original Oct. 16 schedule. Priced at 27,800 won, the DLC will introduce new areas, underwater exploration, additional combat and story content. The aim is to generate additional revenue from players who have already purchased the base game.

Securities analysts are also watching the DLC’s potential earnings contribution. Meritz Securities forecasts fourth-quarter revenue of 159.4 billion won and operating profit of 50.4 billion won, representing increases of 33% and 50%, respectively, from the third-quarter estimates.

The bigger challenge begins next year. Meritz Securities projects operating profit of 117.5 billion won next year, a 67% decline from its forecast for this year.

The release schedule for Pearl Abyss’ next game adds to the financial pressure. According to industry sources, the company is targeting the second half of 2028 for the launch of DokeV. That would leave approximately two and a half years after Crimson Desert’s release with limited prospects for significant earnings growth from new titles.

Some industry observers have suggested adding online features to Crimson Desert or expanding the game with multiplayer content as possible alternatives.

Mirae Asset Securities analyst Lim Hee-seok said in an August report that Pearl Abyss was entering an extended period without new game releases, making further valuation derating unavoidable. “It will be difficult to expect a meaningful revenue rebound from the release of Crimson Desert DLC alone,” he said.